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tv   The Kudlow Report  CNBC  November 5, 2012 7:00pm-8:00pm EST

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climbing. already above 120. i think it could go higher. and then grips, i can't believe they missed. i've got to do more work. i'm jim cramer, see you tomorrow! hey, larry, tomorrow easily the big night. >> the next 24 hours we'll chart the course of our economic if you want. election day begins right now and markets know it. good evening, i'm larry kudlow, this is "the kudlow report." it all comes down to the next 24 hours. one year of campaigning, $1 billion spent, mitt romney ever the optimist going up against the pessimist barack obama. i'm still picking romney and you'll hear my commentary later in the broadcast. for the first time with just hours to go, pennsylvania now coming up in play. that is astounding for a state long thought to be in obama's hands. we have amassed all of the kudlow all-stars on both sides of the aisle to help us out for the next hour. first up, the first polls
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close in 24 hours. that includes the critical battleground state of virginia. so how close will tomorrow be? or can we expect mitt romney or obama to pull off a sizable win? who knows. chief washington correspondent john harwin knows. >> everything we know suggests it's going to be chose. let me give you context for prediction of a romney victory. take the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll. obama 48%, romney photography%, can't get any closer than that, well wind the margin of error. then go to the battleground states. we've got three late battle ground state polls. first of all in the state of virginia which as you mentioned, polls close early, 13 electoral votes, 48/47, president obama on top. state of florida, two-point lead for president obama.
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the state of ohio, most people have seen as the hinge point of this election, president obama's up 51/45. let's look at where the battleground states stand. if you average polls taken on the real clear politics website, of the nine battle ground states romney is only leading in the average of those polls in the two of them, north carolina and florida. the other states, president obama's got a lead. i'm talking about iowa, colorado, new hampshire, ohio, nevada, all states where president obama's doing very well. at least as competitive with romney. if mitt romney wins the states in his base, plus the two where he's leading, he only gets to 235 electoral votes, he needs many more to get elected. president obama would have many more, 303. so what mitt romney's got to do is figure a way to take some of those states away from the president.
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virginia, florida, ohio, colorado, iowa. that's where the election's going to be decided. mitt romney easily got a hill to climb the last 24 hours but nobody can say he can't do it. >> very good, thanks john, we appreciate it. on the eve of the election it's still the economy. that's still issue number one. which candidate offers a stronger pro-growth plan for the economy? let's bring in robert rice, former labor secretary and cnbc contributor, author of "beyond outrage." and stove moore, author of "return to prosperity." i want to make it short and sweet and simple. robert rice, who has the better economic growth program? >> barack obama. >> and why? >> you wanted me to go that extensive commentary? larry, i think that obama is showing the country, and it's clear from john's polling, the post he relates, we're on the right track. it's a very anemic recovery but
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we or the right track. i don't think people want to take a chance with an unknown and romney-nomics. i think people feel and understand it's too dangerous. the ryan budget, who knows what that's going to generate. and i don't think that romney has any plan for replacing dodd-frank or for replacing obama care. i think that we really are on a solid footing here. and again, it's a slow -- it's a slow -- >> solid footing, it's the worst economic growth and jobs-creating cycle since 1947, according to the joint economic committee. >> it's the worst -- wait a minute. it was the worst economy to begin with since 1947. >> it should have had a big rebound. steve moore, i want to ask you the identical question. many polls show that voters favor romney on the economy. >> it's hard not to, because i'm surprised at you, robert reich, that you would herald this economic recovery that we've had
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because it's been so poor. if this were george w. bush in the white house, you'd be throwing pies at this saying it's not good enough. you know what? it isn't good enough. waiting four years to tell robert reich on the air that the reign of liberalism is coming to an end tomorrow because i agree with you, larry, i think romney's going to pull this out and he's going to pull it out because i agree with your premise. in this race, it is mitt romney who is the economic optimist, who's saying we can do much better. it's people like robert reich and barack obama who are saying, this is as good as it gets. >> steve, barack obama has not been saying this is as good as it gets. all over ohio today he's been saying, we must do better. and he's saying that he's not going to relax until unemployment is down and poverty is down. look, i don't think anybody in the administration, and certainly no democrat feels that we are out of the woods. but we're moving in the right direction. that's what america worries about, that's what america wants, moving in the right direction.
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>> you and i have done this show so many years. when george bush was president, 150,000 job growth, you used to say the economy's not doing well enough, 2.5% growth, that's not good enough. you're right. but obama's record on the economy is worse on all these statistics. you're right, he inherited this crisis, but four years later we're not much better. the economy's growing slower now than last year, slower than the year before. you can't blame that on george w. bush. >> wait a minute, there have been terrible headwinds. also, it's not exactly as if republicans and the republican congress has cooperated very much. by my recollection, they voted for absolutely nothing that obama wanted. >> in a democratic congress, two years -- >> all that stuff, $800 billion stimulus, obama care, dodd-frank, he got all that through the democratic congress -- >> we'd be much worse off had we not had that stimulus. >> there's no growth in this. >> far worse off if we'd not had
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that stimulus. i'll tell you, most economists -- >> hang on. if obama is re-elected, i'll give you both 60 seconds. obama re-elected, is there going to be a double-dip recession? >> if those tax increases go through that robert reich has been drooling for, there will be. i think. >> we get romney victory, i think this economy is going to be -- >> same question. 30 seconds, same question. >> if we get an obama victory the economy is going to be absolutely fine. >> we're going to leave it there. >> the whole south is going republican. >> thanks to our die i ammic duo, good to see both of you, appreciate interest. coming up on "kudlow," battle ground: pennsylvania. a startling upset for romney is in the making. the keystone state in play. later, conservative columnist extraordinaire ann coulter on why romney/ryan is the winning ticket, or did chris christie
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throw in a monkey wrench? as always, election night especially. free market capitalism, the best path to prosperity, we need more of it. "kudlow" coming right back. mitt romney's going to be the next president of the united states. the 45th president. the president seems stuck. whether you look at state polls, national polls b. 48%, that is a deadly number for him. that's undecideds are going to break toward mitt romney. i think he's going to win about 300 electoral votes, 51-49 in the popular vote, he'll be the 45th president. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?
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mitt romney energized nearly 30,000 supporters in pennsylvania last night. pennsylvania. late today the campaign announced he'll be back in the keystone state to rally voters tomorrow. the last time pennsylvania elected a republican president was 1988. but the gop hopes to paint the state red again tomorrow.
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it was once considered an obama sure thing. but not anymore. question, are pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes now really in play for governor romney? nobody better than cnbc contributor robert costa, star reporter of "the national review." robert, pennsylvania suddenly has become, i don't know, almost as important as ohio. what's your take? >> romney's going to be back in pennsylvania tomorrow on election day in western pennsylvania at a rally outside of pittsburgh. why is he going there? because he knows pennsylvania's really in play. how does he win it? he's going to win in the western part of the state, coal country. he'll do well in the philadelphia suburbs, moderate area. northeast pennsylvania, a lot of conservative voters. he thinks he can put together a winning coalition. >> what does it mean when you talk about 30,000 supporters? to me that's a big number. not even a good advance man can get that kind of enthusiasm. but is it really significant? >> it's astounding.
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i'll tell you why. yeardley, pennsylvania. philadelphia suburbs, arlen specter's political base, pro-choice republicans, moderate reagan democrats. they came out in leaps and bounds yesterday. 30,000 for romney in the moderate philly suburbs. george h.w. bush, when he won the state in 1988, he swept the philadelphia suburbs. romney has suburb ban appeal. >> why, robert, did team romney wait so long to go into pennsylvania? >> key strategic question. president bush in 2004 got within two, three points in pennsylvania. he had the wars hanging over him, didn't do too well. the question for romney is why did he wait until late october to play in pennsylvania? only started spending here after the denver debate got him a bit of momentum. now he's going to get close. was it too late? is it enough? >> is it fair to say governor romney has got to win either ohio or pennsylvania? is that fair? >> no republican since the 19th
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century has won the white house without ohio. if you don't win ohio you have to find a substitute. pennsylvania is a perfect substitute. if you don't win ohio or on pennsylvania it's hard to find a different calculus to get 270 which you need to win the white house. >> many, many thanks robert costa. another key state to watch, florida, florida, florida. the most recent polling average showed mitt romney is holding an advantage leading about 50-48. with 29 electoral votes at stake it is a must-win for romney in his path to 270. and it's a state president obama won in 2008. to explain romney's path to victory in florida, we're join the by senator marco rubio. i'm just doing the average of the real clear politics center. actually, your man's up 1.5%. that's all it is, 49.7 versus 48.2. if you can't win florida, pack
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up and go home, what's your take? >> well, 1.5% in florida as blowout. let's hope it's that much. we feel good about florida, we really do. i mean, as i said, the best way i can put it is i'd rather be us than them. there's a lot of the reasons why we feel good about florida. because the early voting advantage the democrats built up in 2008 isn't there this time around. it's about half, less than half what was they had going in. last year, 2008, going into election day. that manifests -- that's evidence of a lack of enthusiasm on the part of democrats. on the other hand, republicans are excited. we won the absentee ballot voting, the early voting margin is not as wide as it needs to be, we're going to win tomorrow on election day. >> let me ask you the enthusiasm. this is important, the intensity, enthusiasm. in two places, senator rubio, it's very important. as you know better than i know because you've done so well there. number one, the florida panhandle. the western part of the state. the upper area.
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that is kind of blue collar, that ought to be heavily republican. are you going to get the vote out up there? because you can't win without it. >> that's what tomorrow's all about. so if you live in any part of florida, you want to vote for mitt romney, tomorrow easily the day to do it. it's simple. if our base turns out to vote, the folks to want to support governor romney vote tomorrow, that includes waiting in lines that in some counties might be longer than normal, we're going to win in florida, we're going to win nationally. so i expect that to happen, especially in northwest florida. >> you need a big vote in jacksonville and the panhandle. you need pretty good votes, as you know, in the i-4 corridor which i'm going to call tampa and orlando. that's where a lot of elections -- what's your operation look like there? what's the turnout operation? what's the ground operation look like? >> it's well-organized. we feel good about it. our numbers, our early voting and absentee ballot voters from that area is evidence of enthusiasm. in all the places of the state where we cut into the margins democrats traditionally have, that's one of the areas we're
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most excited about. that has to manifest tomorrow. we believe it will. governor romney was there toepd, had a great crowd that greeted him, a couple of events there in the last week with governor romney with great crowds that turned out as well. i was with him two saturdays ago, 15,000 people in pensacola, another 10,000 people in central florida in the kissimmy area. i feel good about the i-4. i feel good about the state, i do. >> live pictures of governor rom at an airport campaign event in columbus, ohio. let's go back to senator rubio. senator, florida's in lousy economic shape, really hasn't had a lot of recovery, a lot of foreclosures, housing problems. is this the basis of the discontent against obama? >> well, it's certainly the foundation of it. one of the things that's helped in florida is we have a republican conservative leadership in the governor's mansion and the legislature that balances the budget every year, doesn't increase taxes, and that's created stable economic
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platform at the state level. they need a partner at the federal level, in the white house, and people know that. i think obama care in particular has been devastating and is going to be devastating in florida. small businesses that are cutting back people from full-time to part-time to avoid some of the most onerous provisionth in the law. seniors that understand that the law takes money out of medicare. the seniors that are worried about the future of medicare and the fact that barack obama doesn't have a plan to save it. all these things. you remember that when this campaign started and paul ryan was named as running mate everyone said, medicare, they're going to crush the republicans on medicare in florida. we are winning the medicare debate in florida and i believe nationally. that's good for our country because we can start talking maturely about what it is we need to do to save that program and balance our budget. >> will connie mack's son, how what's he going to do with incumbent senator bill nelson? it could be a gop turnaround. the republicans need some
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turnarounds. what's your prognostication on that race? >> i think he's worked really hard. he's become a really good campaigner down the stretch here, especially. you can see the polls have tightened and i think he's got momentum on his side. we're hoping he'll help us get a new majority in the senate so we can get some business done. >> marco rubio in florida, thank you, good to see you. coming up, special republicans expected to hold the house. but can the gop also gain control of the senate? we just talked about florida. much more coming up next. i think president obama will be re-elected because the american voters know that this economy finally has real momentum in it. the last thing you want to do is change horses, especially when the other horse is running fast in the wrong direction.
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but there's more in you than just circuits and wires! uhhh. (cries) a machine can't give you what a person can. that's why ally has knowledgeable people there for you, night and day. ally bank. your money needs an ally. can the gop take control of the senate in the magic number is three or four, depending who wins the white house. eamon joins us now. >> the current division in the senate is 51 democrats and two independents who typically vote with the democrats and 47 republicans. the gop needs four pickups to take control of the senate. three states where republicans have the best chance to do that starting in nebraska where democratic senator ben nelson is
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retiring, former senator bob kerrey running here. deb fisher republican is going to be a little ahead in the polls going into election day. in montana where incumbent bob tester is facing a tough challenge. the republicans appear to be ahead in the polls. although in montana there's not a whole lot of polling here. watch for this one on election night. and in north dakota, long-time democratic senator kent conrad is retiring. republicans appear to have the edge in this race. gop needs four seats to take control of the senate. unless mitt romney wins the presidency. in that case, republicans only need three seats because as sitting vice president, paul ryan would cast the high-breaking vote for control of the senate. >> many thanks. eamon. coming up, obama's midwest firewall may be cracking. can romney's running mate deliver his home state of texas in the badger state senator ron
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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm larry kudlow. in this half hour, what happens if we're still counting the results of this election wednesday? are we setting ourselves up for a market crash? also in this half hour, did new jersey governor chris christie throw a monkey wrench at mitt romney? we're going to ask columnist extraordinaire ann coulter. first up, the midwest could no longer be an obama firewall. in fact, with wisconsin's paul ryan as his running mate could we expect their electoral votes in ryan's column? joining me, wisconsin republican senator ron johnson. welcome back. just looking at the real clear average polls, you've got it four points down, 50% for mr. obama, 46% for mr. romney. if romney doesn't carry ohio, he
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has got to carry wisconsin. and you're down. how's this going to play out? >> well, larry, the reason i'm optimistic about wisconsin is really the motivation of our voters. i mean, as you travel around wisconsin, people realize what's at stake here is really the financial future of this country. it's about saving america. the other side, what's their motivating factor? they've got a record of president obama that's impossible to defend. $4,500 decline in median household income. the high level of unemployment. the promises that are broken, whether it's cutting the deficit no half, not achieving $2,500 reduction in family health care costs. this president just has got no record to defend. so i believe his voters are dispirited. ours are highly motivated. and that's going to be the difference on election day. >> all right, i hear you, sir. wisconsin's a tough one for republicans. even a strong republican like mr. romney. let me ask you this.
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can scott walker -- i'm going to call it his machine, that may be unfair. he pulled out tremendous, tremendous votes in the milwaukee suburbs. he did it twice. once in 2010, then earlier this year in the recall. will governor walker's group in the suburbs carry romney through? is that where it's going to on be? >> sure. larry, that really started in the november 2010 election where ryan set up excellent party structure. that's just been fortified over the recall election. and you know, there have been a lot of the outside groups also coming in here really doing excellent work in terms of micro targeting of voters. our early get out the vote effort was really targeted toward casual voters, people who don't come out all the time, versus democrats who are trying to get out people who are going to vote anyway. i don't pay attention to polls. only 9% of people are responding to polls. take a look at the exit polls in the recall, that race was
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supposedly too close to call, yet governor walker bested the recall by 6.8%. so i'm just telling people in wisconsin, pay no attention to the polls, the punditry. we have to talk to friends, family, neighbors, get people out to the polls. i'm on the mystic about wisconsin and the country. >> how about the paul ryan factor? racine, south western part of the state, how strong can ryan deliver? it's an odd thing now addais but vice presidents used to be able to deliver their own states. how strong will he be? >> that's an eighth of the vote. we have eight districts. an eighth of the vote, paul ryan carried his district last time by 68%. 64% during the last presidential vote. it's not only there. we've got the fox river valley area, he's polling well. sean duffy in david obi's old district, he's polling well. i think we've got three or four kind of swing districtth in the past that are going to come home strong for the congressional
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candidates. that's going to help mitt romney. that's another reason i'm optimistic for tomorrow. >> you've got tremendous senate race, tammy baldwin versus tommy thompson. how does it look to you? if baldwin is very strong, some people are saying that's going to hurt romney. on the other hand, thompson used to be the top politician in the state. who's going to win that race? >> tommy's a brand in the state of wisconsin. i think he's up right now. i don't think tammy is that strong. she's incredibly liberal. tommy's done a good job pointing out exactly how liberal she is. more liberal than nancy pelosi. that doesn't play well in the state. she's got strong support in dayton county, democrat dozen. but the rest of the state, i'm confident that tommy will be the next senator from the state of wisconsin. >> all right. many, many thanks, senator ron johnson from wisconsin. could be a pivotal state. thank you, sir. here now to make her case for why she thinks mitt romney is going to carry the day tomorrow, we have syndicated
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conservative columnist ann coulter, her latest book "mugged" is available. i know you're for romney, that's too easy. what i want to ask you is one of your other heroes, chris christie, governor of new jersey. there was a time you wanted christie to be president. how much damage has chris christie done to romney by embracing barack obama during this super hurricane storm? >> i don't think he really has done any damage at all. we'll find out tomorrow when romney wins that he didn't do any damage. if anything, i think obama touring with christie kind of made the president look small and made it look like christie's in charge. i mean, the president only showed up for photo ops wherever he was invited. he was rejected from new york. we didn't really want him here. i think the reason christie did it isn't hard to figure out. right after christie became governor, remember how the obama administration denied some
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crucial no child left behind, some education funds to the state of new jersey? they claimed you didn't have your education records from 2006, or something. it was a complete pretext. it was because there was a republican governor. and right now new jersey is hurting and that's what christie has to worry about. he needs to get federal funds. and unfortunately that means he has to suck up to the grand leader. >> fair enough, i understand that. the federal funds suck-up, i get that. let me ask you this. a lot of people and a lot of the polling data, to the extent we care, sandy stopped mitt romney's momentum. momny was really on a high trajectory, now all of a sudden the race has changed and the polls are completely even. in your judgment, ann, how does romney get out of that box? he lost his mo, how does he get out of that box and win tomorrow night? >> i don't think he has lost his momentum. i think polls basically show the candidates tied in the swing
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states. except florida and north carolina, where romney -- i don't think they're even considered swing states anymore. even by the left. but of the remaining swing states, it's gone a little bit this way, a little bit that way, i wouldn't read too much into it considering the polls aren't going to be correct. the polls as ron johnson just said -- by the way, i spent the weekend in wisconsin, i did five different events, and they are very excited in the suburbs of milwaukee. i have romney winning at an absolute minimum 273 electoral votes. i don't usually do this because i'm confident romney's going to win because the country's really going in the wrong direction. you can see -- i mean, doug wilder, the first elected black governor, did not endorse obama today. he endorsed him four years ago. and he basically endorsed romney, if you look at it. you have 30 newspapers who that have switched their endorsements from obama to romney. this time around.
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including nine major papers in the swing states. that is the direction the country's going in. but i don't see how romney loses wisconsin, colorado, iowa, north carolina, or florida. and that's enough. you don't even need pennsylvania and ohio. and i think what's got a good shot at pennsylvania and ohio and michigan and il. >> all right, last one. let me just ask you. i don't understand this. voting is the best revenge. that's what president obama said. revenge against what? against whom? what was he talking about, ann coulter? >> well, against you, larry. against you 1% people. >> is that what it is? if you want to go against the rich people, if you want to go against the successful earners? i don't know, if you want to go against big government? is that what he was saying? where's this coming from? >> this is generally a theme of the democratic party. they appeal to specific groups, i don't know if you saw this today, it's gone viral, this idea that republicans are going to put gays in concentration
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camps or something. you have the claim that the republicans are going to redefine rape. this is the democratic specialty. appeal to specific groups. women and illegal imdpranlts and blacks and the elderly. it's never a general message about america. that is the difference between the two parties. >> it's a pretty pessimistic message, it's an antagonistic, negativeistic message. that's what it is. revenge? presidential races shouldn't be about revenge. >> but i've taken his words to heart and tomorrow i plan to vote out of revenge. and i don't think he's going to like the result. >> all right, very good. ann coulter, thank you very much as always. just a reminder, cnbc coverage of election night begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern. join me and the cnbc team for extensive coverage. we are going to be here all night. coming up this evening, will republicans be praying for rain tomorrow? we're going to show you the facts on how the weather could
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actually be a game-changer on election day. obama supporters more likely to stay home in bad weather. the full story up next. we're going to see mitt romney elected president tomorrow night for a couple of different reasons. first of all, the early voting coming out of ohio is trending in the way of mitt romney, especially as compared to 2008. we also see young voters who came out so strong for obama in 2008 are not going to be doing that in 2012. charlie rose: will you endorse president obama? colin powell: yes. when he took over we were in one of the... worst recessions we had seen in recent times... close to a depression. and i saw, over the next several years, stabilization... come back in the financial community. housing is starting to pick up. the president saved the auto industry. and the actions he's taken with respect to... protecting us from terrorism have been very, very solid. and so, i think we ought to keep on the track that we are on.
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president obama: i'm barack obama and... i approve this message.
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of course, weather can be a game-changer on election day and historically, republicans should be praying for rain. i don't agree with that but that's the historic view. more to the point, here's is paul walsh, vice president of weather analyticth at the weather company. paul, what's the threat here? what's the strategic threat? >> larry, we've done analysis and it's been done in the academic literature that shows when the weather's bad, it generally favors republicans. it's really a function of demographics and being able to get out and get to vote. historically, that has been a benefit. what we're seeing now for tomorrow is that it's going to be raining in northern florida. probably rain morgue than it was in 2000. in 2000 with the gore v. bush race so tight, there are some that say the rain in northern florida might have played a part in the outcome of that election.
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>> paul, let me just ask you, because i had senator rubio on. i asked him directly about northern florida. i asked him about the panhandle. i guess from jacksonville right over to the panhandle. now, that's republican territory. >> right. >> you're saying in this case, if there's a big rainstorm, the republicans may get washed out. >> no, actually, it's more beneficial for republicans because what we found is that it's more negative for the democratic voters. when the race -- >> up there in the panhandle, northern florida? those are gop votes. >> there's some democrats. we're looking at a very, very tight race. this is basically a headwind for the democrats when it's raining and nasty out. >> is there another spot, one more spot we should worry about the last few seconds here? >> perhaps north carolina. same thing. it's all part of this nor easer that's forming up that's going to hilt us unfortunately here in the northeast probably wednesday. that won't affect the election directly anyway. investors, they're anxiously awaiting what's going do happen
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ahead of tomorrow's election. what if we're all here this time tomorrow without a winner? oh-oh. let's bring in keith mccullough. we've got good ground to cover. just reading your notes you're saying if this thing isn't counted up and decided properly by the end of the close of business wednesday, i'm going to say, all hell's going to break loose in the stock market. that is a fair interpretation? >> yeah, i think that's probably right. and as winston churchill said, if you're going to hell, keep going. i think that's probably how that market's going to feel. if you go back to 2000 when you had the same kind of constipation, the market was down 5.7% in the first five trading days after that. then within three weeks the s&p 500 was down 8%. and that was in the nonera of twitter, all the noise obviously that is social media now. and without the fiscal cliff hanging in the balance. again, any kind of constipation
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here would definitely have this market going through some version of hell. >> but you also have done extensive analysis about all the genius pollsters. fy read you right, and i think i agree with you on this very much, these guys are not getting their democratic and republican polling models, their turnout models, right. we may be surprised with a romney victory. >> they're just very inconsistent with the midterm elections. so when you look at these i.d.s that really skew to the democrats, that's really unbelievable for anybody who believes that there's any balance in the country. so again, nate silver's the prom on nent voice here with an obama win in these basic i.d.s being implied as facts. now, the biggest risk with the nate silvers of the world as he's written in his most recent book is you shouldn't trust the polls. the polls are laden with simple survey risks. there's a ton of confirmation
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bias. that's what i'd be worried about is all these polls are based on facts that may not be facts. >> everybody's telling me obama's going to win. that's just -- i'm not going to name names but i want to tell you, in this building, there is a large view that obama is going to win. i do not share that view, keith. you might suspect so. if the voter i.d. is different, it's 2004 rather than 2008, and at the intensity, enthusiasm is greater, and if romney does win, if he wins, what happens to the stock market? >> that's the thing. the market, if i asked anybody in my neighborhood, if i ask anyone broadly who's worried about who's listening to the answer, i'm probably going to get the same answer that you got. but if i asked the market, the market via the u.s. dollar is a very simple vote. the u.s. dollar's been up six of the last seven weeks. at the same time, you've seen calamity in some commodity prices. gold starting to break down. if romney were to win, the first thing i think happens is more of
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the same which would imply ben bernanke removed from his seat, gold would be under a serious amount of duress, and you'd start to really have to bake in whether it's hubbard or taylor at the fed, a whole host of issues could come into the bond market -- >> that's your romney, clinton, king dollar scenario, if i may. >> yeah. both reagan and clinton were good for the dollar. i think romney, certainly in the intermediate term, would be seen as a bullish thing for the dollar as well. that could get gas prices in the end, i think that's good for the country, good for consumption. >> wow, great stuff. thank you ever so much. it's election eve. who's going to be the victor? obama or romney? we keep asking this question. predictions up next. please stay right here. president obama will win tomorrow night for two reasons. first, he's ahead in the national polling average, which he hasn't been in the past few
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weeks but he is now. secondly, and this is most important, in the electoral college, he's at 6 of the nine swing states which gives him 30 on 3 electoral votes. clearly enough to win re-election.
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the countdown to election day just a few short hours away. it's going to be romney or obama. it's bring in political star strategists who are ready with their election predictions. we bring back cnbc contributors. author of "outnumbered: chronicles a manhattan conservative." outnumber the, i feel the same way. all the smart money is telling me, all the polls are going obama's way. i just don't think anybody can rely on polls. this thing could be a land slide for romney or it could be a landslide for obama. how can you be so sure it's going to be obama? >> i will agree we should leave it up to the voters. luckily we're at that time of year. i do think, though, voting has started and that's one of the early indications. mitt romney is currently behind in the ballots cast from the indications that we have in the key states. so what that means practically for tomorrow is he will have to
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win more than 51% in states like ohio, he will have to win something like 60% tomorrow to make up for the deficit in early voting according to the counties we've seen. i've worked on the ground in ohio -- >> we're running behind. this is the point, jedediah, i've got to bring you in. they are running behind. they being team obama are running well behind in 2008. and jedediah, here's my other point. incumbent president, all these polls, is under 50%. that is usually significant. why is the mainstream media and his followers ignoring that? >> i think they're afraid to recognize that the enthusiasm for barack obama is significantly down. particularly among key groups like young people, like women, like hispanic-americans, african-america african-americans, people who have suffered enormously under huge unemployment rates, high unemployment rates. now they're saying, this hope and change i voted for didn't work out so well for me.
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also, you have to realize that barack obama did not present a new vision. he basically articulated the same things he said in 2008. once again in 2012. i was listening to him today and saying, am i in some time machine? i've heard all this stuff already. thk that independent voters, the reason you see them flocking to mitt romney, is because they're sitting there and saying, i've heard all this, it didn't work for me then, it won't work for me now, i want something new. i am anticipating a romney victory. i don't know that it will be as high as the 315 predicted in the electoral college, i think it will be a around 285. if you'd asked me a week or two ago, i would have said, i'm not so sure. today i'm feeling confident. >> let's go back to this. it's not only voter i.d. depends on which model you're using. the 2008 model which would give democrats plus 7 or 8 in every single poll in this nonsense or the 2004 model which is even
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steven or the 2010 model which is plus republicans. but what about a group -- we had ralph reid on this show friday evening. he talked about how evangelical christians are mobilizing in ways we haven't seen in years. how can you be sure that group and other important groups have so much enthusiasm they're not going to come out and vote for romn romney? >> i didn't say i was sure, i said there's indications we can look at the deficit that rom has. jedediah's point, i'm not afraid, i don't feel afraid, but we could talk tomorrow and the next day and see where the fear leads. i think the policemen for mitt romney is not in messaging. jedediah gives the romney message better than he does with regard to -- i don't mean that sarcastically. you sound strong, you're making a clear argument about why you feel some of these things have been tried and failed. i think for mitt romney, there hasn't been a strong closing argument. long before the storm, there was a feeling that he had a good first debate performance, but he didn't close the deal on why he's a credible economic
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alternative. i get that unemployment is high. so does barack obama's base, which jedediah accurately pointed out has been suffering. if you look at african-american unemployment it is higher than median unemployment for citizens. but a lot of people feel we're moving in the right direction, we have high private sector job growth if obama's agenda wasn't obstructed so much. >> i want to point out something i think is key, mitt romney's message has been a very positive message, optimistic message, a unifying message. whereas if you listen to the president speak, i think he has strategically really catered to his left-wing base these last few weeks. he has not been reaching out to independents. you have him reaching out to his base. you have mitt romney presenting himself as the guy who has a long history of reaching across the aisle, of dealing with the majority democrat legislature, of being the guy who will sit down and get things done. >> you are going to live this kudlow editorial coming up, that
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is exactly my thought. >> when you hold a lot of democratic positions it's easy to reach across the aisle. the problem for mitt is consistency. >> i love reaching across the aisle. thank you very much, you're both terrific. i want to just take some time, it's the last time before election day, to offer my own commentary. look it, most times in the american politics, optimists win, pessimists lose. i know that's not always the case. but in this election, mitt romney is clearly the optimist. barack obama the pes cyst. that's why i think it's romney's election to win. in my lifetime, ike was the optimist. stevenson the pes cyst. kennedy the optimist. remember, get america moving again. nixon the pes cyst. reagan, of course, morning in america. carter, the pessimist. four years ago, obama the optimist. he was the candidate of hope and change. today, his negativism is translating into pessimism. a and i believe the american people do not want that. voting is the best revenge, obama said this past weekend.
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i don't get that. f. scott fitzgerald wrote, living well is the best revenge. what exactly is president obama's revenge? growing the government? taxing and relating more? attacking the rich? optimists believe in ingenuity, entrepreneurship, the spirit of gifted individuals who are free to use their god-given tall lebs to make our economy and society the business est it can be. the president seems not to take this view. mitt romney does. and romney believes that god granted natural rights to individuals and it is they who truly run the government and the country. it's a free enterprise view. it's a market view. it's a human action view. to my way of thinking, that makes romney the model optimist. he sets an optimistic goal of 4% growth, 12 million new jobs, he says he'll reduce and reform the tax system in ways that will reward, not punish, the success of individuals and small
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businesses. he said he would encourage business, not insult it. look it, i've interviewed him on "the kudlow report" several. he believes in free market capitalism and choice as the solution to poverty. he does not believe in the heavy hand of government. when romney talks about increasing take-home pay, it's about crediting a dividing line between a larger private sector and containing government. romney offers to reach across the aisle. that's important. he offers to reach across the aisle to find common ground on spending and deficits and debt and tax reform and entitlements. and like reagan, romney is saying, optimism. we can fix this. we can solve this. with people of good will and strong principles coming together for the first time in many years. barack obama was dealt a bad hand, i'm not blaming him for all the country's ills. but i think mr. obama chose the wrong course. he is operating historically
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discredited model. mitt romney, on the other hand, is working to restore the freedom model created by our founders. the model that has served the country well for 250 odd years. it's a belief in people and good common sense, profoundly optimistic, and that's why i think his optimism is going to win this election. please think about all that tomorrow. so uh this is my friend frank and his, uh, retirement plan.
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